Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.668242 21.400989 23.317096 25.613413 28.318441 31.439992 35.369988
2024-10-20 16.838868 19.059158 21.692589 25.115521 29.558739 35.307674 43.643606
2024-10-27 15.583558 18.218351 21.533841 26.168554 32.773547 42.410009 58.913584
2024-11-03 14.204101 16.972023 20.600100 25.945944 34.131323 47.330296 73.757640
2024-11-10 13.232987 16.100872 19.991856 25.996033 35.818459 53.307722 95.003596
2024-11-17 12.492956 15.437471 19.553590 26.173269 37.695895 60.365520 126.460443
2024-11-24 11.867245 14.856937 19.144310 26.294794 39.470975 68.071480 173.201971
2024-12-01 11.247730 14.222742 18.574207 26.043856 40.468495 74.602384 234.349348
2024-12-08 10.774349 13.756866 18.204561 26.062806 41.991957 83.454914 352.708421
2024-12-15 10.303039 13.255901 17.727575 25.814825 42.886123 91.258513 549.341071
2024-12-22 9.884548 12.803851 17.285805 25.565281 43.716006 99.660624 988.882345
2024-12-29 9.517166 12.404915 16.895084 25.356499 44.595051 109.229311 2569.510659
2025-01-05 9.185123 12.046506 16.552634 25.217680 45.683552 121.366703 352318.026704
2025-01-12 8.807096 11.596704 16.025980 24.656483 45.565388 128.322743 NaN
2025-01-19 8.717504 11.592540 16.252057 25.641369 49.959457 167.065568 NaN
2025-01-26 8.442226 11.277284 15.915675 25.411006 50.815486 186.889914 NaN
2025-02-02 8.228901 11.050277 15.717676 25.452695 52.547586 219.735054 NaN
2025-02-09 8.049040 10.867853 15.585167 25.620772 54.779669 268.606227 NaN
2025-02-16 7.874195 10.684613 15.437787 25.736702 56.915201 332.825048 NaN
2025-02-23 7.663723 10.432966 15.149264 25.494091 57.704259 387.310900 NaN
2025-03-02 7.499822 10.251615 14.979467 25.512128 59.527706 491.245318 NaN
2025-03-09 7.314099 10.026099 14.714112 25.272782 60.279878 591.570380 NaN
2025-03-16 7.138934 9.811766 14.458432 25.031933 60.980045 724.734643 NaN